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New Leaf revealed... state of the electric car


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10 replies to this topic

#1 OFFLINE   meyersnole

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 01:10 PM

I thought this was a decent read...

 

As 2018 Nissan Leaf arrives, data on US electric-car market offers reality check

http://www.greencarr...s-reality-check

 

What is it going to take to push the electric car forward in adoption? Currently less than 1% of overall sales if you just look at BEV, only 3.5 if you include hybrids and PHEV (thought it was higher than that.. but this article is not sourced.). 

 

I know a lot of people say price, but it already seems to be competitive with ICE vehicles. Sure price will drive sales, but I don't think that is really the answer.

 

Battery technology? This could be a bigger deal. People will fixate on that 1%-5% use case where even if you have 250 mile range but needed to do 300-400 in a day? How long would the charge take? How available is it? (Infrastructure - probably also a big deal). How bad is the battery degradation and how do you deal with it? Maybe it is economics and a 200 mile battery costs less than $5k to replace?

 

Will it take a mandate (zero emissions) to get there?

 

Personally I think battery technology like solid state batteries or something that allows quick charging plus education and the car makers' desire to sell these cars all have to come together for it to really take off.  Here is hoping that Toyota stays on track for its 2020 release of that technology. Ford seems to have lost interest... have not heard anything about the Model E in the last year and the Fusion seems stagnant in technology... no real electrification drive train changes since the model introduction. There are few sites guessing that Ford is still moving forward with a Prius competitor to be released in 2019... but there is no hype ahead of launch like there was from GM about the Bolt or Tesla for their model 3. My guess is that they are going to play it pretty conservatively and see where the market goes... play catch up if they need to.      

 

 


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#2 OFFLINE   jj2me

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Posted 05 September 2017 - 03:54 PM

Article:
"Toyota chairman: Battery technology must evolve before widespread electric vehicle adoption"

https://www.cnbc.com...apid-shift.html

"... in order for electric vehicles to cover long distances, they currently need to be loaded with a lot of batteries that take a considerable amount of time to charge. There's also the issue of battery life," he said."

And

"Uchiyamada said another two or three more technological breakthroughs are needed before vehicles can be fully powered by batteries."

#3 OFFLINE   meyersnole

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Posted 06 September 2017 - 05:37 AM

And then you have Elon Musk that is building multiple gigafactories to meet what he thinks is current demand with current technology (not that Tesla is standing still or anything -- he has hinted they are also very close to a breakthrough).  But you have an example of a company all in on electric vehicles and another that wants to prove they can. 

 

EV sales would spike hard if Tesla had the production capacity of a company like Toyota... but it does not. Will be interesting to see what happens when the model 3 starts shipping in real numbers and becomes available to buy (no year wait times).. will it sell?


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#4 OFFLINE   Electriffic

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 09:46 AM

I've driven a 2011 Leaf for the last four years. The reason most people don't want my car is range.

Toyota is generally correct about EVs but I see them hopping on board with EVs as battery tech evolves.

The two things that prevent EVs from going mainstream are 1)range and 2)charge time. Cost could be said to be a factor too.

Range: even with a 60kwh Bolt or Leaf, range is marginal. I speak as a guy who will likely own a used one, so the batteries are starting to degrade. I also live in a hilly, cold climate. So An advertised 238 miles of range in my world can easily turn into 125 miles. And my gen 1 Leaf? It's good for 35 miles. (I can push it to 50 in the summer).

Recharge time: too long. Tesla owners doing a road trip must budget three hours for a comparable fill-up. Infrastructure for non-Tesla owners is a hassle. I am actually willing to plan a trip around where I can charge, but most folks aren't.

The good news is that range can now be comparable to conventional cars. The bad news is that the charging time problem isnĀ“t solved.

The charging problem could be solved immediately by making batteries swappable. This would require standardized sizes and equipment. But it would mean you could drive five or six hundred miles in a day and only lose 10 minutes or less to refueling. Again, the best we have now (Tesla) is still a three-hour affair. Yes, I recognize that there would be a time lag between now and widespread adoption of a swapping standard, but I believe this time would be far less than inventing brand-new technology to take a massive battery pack and juice it up in 10 mins.

The current focus on reducing battery charge time requires new breakthroughs, so it's not clear when such tech will be widely available. It's an uphill slog. That's why I favor swapping...getting the job done with tech that's available right now. Also gas stations could adopt swapping, meaning drivers can still just pull into one to quickly refuel.

I recently added a PHEV to my vehicle stable, and I have mixed feelings about it. I hate that it's basically just gas-powered car with an oversized hybrid battery. I love that 90% of my in-town use is only electric. I love that I can take my PHEV on a road trip and not worry about where my next charge is coming from. I love that I don't worry about running out of charge while shuttling my kids around. I wouldn't mind getting a new Leaf, even the 40kwh would be a vast improvement over my not-quite-24kwh battery. But then again I'd be paying a premium price for an in-town only car.

The state of the electric car is still emerging, but emerging quickly.

#5 OFFLINE   murphy

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Posted 05 January 2019 - 11:30 AM

A Tesla does not take 3 hours to charge at a supercharger.  It's more like 30 to 45 minutes as long as you don't try to charge the battery to 100%.  When I visit my brother, who is 270 miles away, I stop to charge once and visit the restroom while it is charging.  I've been making that trip in a Tesla for 4 years.  My Energi is used for trips to local stores.  I bought 12 gallons of gasoline for the Energi last year mostly to keep it from getting stale in the tank.



#6 OFFLINE   RickEnergi

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Posted 06 January 2019 - 10:08 AM

Info I've found is that at a Tesla Supercharging station, it takes 20 minutes to charge to 50%, 40 minutes to charge to 80%, and 75 minutes to 100%.



#7 OFFLINE   Fgolman

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Posted 06 January 2019 - 10:53 AM

At least two things are in play that can address the charge time issue.

1) New chemistry and technology, including a liquid battery (that would essentially use same fuelling infrastructure as gasoline-powered vehicles).

2) Liquid cooled charge cables. This would allow huge currents to be sent into compatible battery systems.

Look for these coming in the next three or four years or so.

#8 OFFLINE   meyersnole

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 06:50 PM

Info I've found is that at a Tesla Supercharging station, it takes 20 minutes to charge to 50%, 40 minutes to charge to 80%, and 75 minutes to 100%.

I think the latest from Tesla is that the V3 of the supercharger should be in the 200-250 kWh range and give an 80% charge in around 15-20 minutes. 

 

Tesla's commitment to their supercharger infrastructure is a reason why I always laugh when reporters talk about a Tesla killer from some major brand. Yes, the car might be superior in some ways but is the entire experience enough to get people to ignore Tesla's products? 


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#9 OFFLINE   cr08

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 05:11 PM

The charging network is honestly the only HUGE draw they have and likely will for some time. Once more standard DCFC's become as widespread in proper highway-accessible locations and more and more long range EV's from other manufacturers come out (which we are readily seeing the development of right now), Tesla's finally going to have viable competition which I think Elon is perfectly fine with and was his goal.


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#10 OFFLINE   meyersnole

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Posted 20 January 2019 - 01:12 PM

The charging network is honestly the only HUGE draw they have and likely will for some time. Once more standard DCFC's become as widespread in proper highway-accessible locations and more and more long range EV's from other manufacturers come out (which we are readily seeing the development of right now), Tesla's finally going to have viable competition which I think Elon is perfectly fine with and was his goal.

Almost completely agree. The other thing that Tesla has is insane performance/$ value. I know plenty of people that bought them because of the driving experience with no regard about the other benefits of an electric powertrain.    


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#11 OFFLINE   4cylinder

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Posted 25 February 2019 - 09:58 AM

Almost completely agree. The other thing that Tesla has is insane performance/$ value. I know plenty of people that bought them because of the driving experience with no regard about the other benefits of an electric powertrain.    

 

I would also add that some states/provinces give single occupancy HOV lane privileges to EVs and PHEVs. I know a guy who bought the PHEV version of the BMW X5 just to get the HOV privileges. He doesn't care about the electric part, but the time he saves on his commute is something he really appreciates. Sadly he often forgets the plug even exists and doesn't use his car to its full potential :(










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